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Government Weather Forecast Tells Nothing, Carefully

The lamestream media told you:

Caleb Jones (Associated Press) Officials with the National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Thursday there is about a 40 percent chance the season will be above normal, a 40 percent chance it will be normal and a 20 percent chance it will be below normal. http://ktar.com/story/1091087/feds-say-2016-hurricane-season-in-pacific-will-be-average/


The Uninvited Ombudsman notes however that:


Is it actually possible the AP reporter who reported this report couldn't tell this reports nothing? There is no way to tell if this report is accurate -- even after the fact. If storms are at, above or below average the report will be correct. It is framed so that it cannot be wroPublishng. It is probably the worst example of a report detail, or maybe best that is worthless ever created, tied with who knows how many other government reports. But this one stands out thanks to the math.

How much did this 40/40/20 result cost the tax payers, and how many "scientists" did it take to screw in this light bulb? In fairness, they did say Pacific hurricanes (technically cyclones) will be average, and predict between four and seven. Who's counting, who's accountable and is there any accounting if the count is off? Does it matter if a tax-funded bureau guesses there will be X storms and there aren't? How much does that cost?

Comments

Liston Matthews

Weathermen and economists get paid for being wrong.

The exception would be John Lott.

Vince Barbour

So this means there is a 60% chance the weather this year will not be unusually adverse.

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About the Author

  • Freelance writer Alan Korwin is a founder and past president of the Arizona Book Publishing Association. With his wife Cheryl he operates Bloomfield Press, the largest producer and distributor of gun-law books in the country. Here writing as "The Uninvited Ombudsman," Alan covers the day's stories as they ought to read. Read more.

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